Challenges in assessing exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards in large cities: the case study of Arequipa near the Misti volcano, south Peru

Abstract

Assessing risk of potential natural catastrophes in cities remains challenging, in particular as we need to elaborate quantitative criteria for exposure and vulnerability. Statistical and probabilistic methods have been applied to Arequipa, one of the most vulnerable Latin America cities. The second largest city of Peru is highly exposed to natural hazards: earthquakes, eruptions from the historically active El Misti volcano, rain-triggered flash floods and mass flows together with landslides from the Río Chili canyon walls. First, we propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for the Misti composite cone located 17 km from Arequipa. Second, we examine criteria for delineating areas prone to mass flow hazards and characterizing multiple sources of vulnerability forthe city. Third, a statistical methodology to better estimate damage probability for buildings is proposed.